Trump’s threats to the world on the rise

Post his success in Venezuela, President Donald Trump assumes that the US has the capacity to intervene anywhere it desires, irrespective of a nation being a friend or foe, and can alter global and regional geopolitical dynamics at will. Few nations criticized the US action in Venezuela, though it violated international law. Venezuela was a success because its corrupt military leadership was possibly bought over by the CIA. It may not happen every time. Venezuela remains far from stable. Delcy Rodriguez, as acting President, is attempting to balance ever increasing demands and threats from Trump against pulls and pressures from various anti-US factions within.

She faces internal and external challenges and instead of supporting the transition in leadership, Trump is countering with additional demands. Rather than wait for Venezuela to stabilize, Trump has begun planning his next misadventure, hoping it would be as easy as Venezuela. He has begun claiming that Greenland is essential for security of the US and hence must form part of it. Defending his stance he has stated that if the US does not occupy it, Russia and China would do so soon. He has also issued threats of military intervention against Columbia, Cuba, Mexico and Iran.

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Earlier he had demanded that Canada must be a part of the US, souring ties. For Trump, global bodies, rules-based order, and international law including respecting sovereignty of nations, mean nothing. His tariff wars and inflated ego have pushed his close allies away. His claims of having resolved multiple conflicts hence entitling him to the Nobel Peace Prize, have been contested by many, including India. After failing to end conflicts, Trump has shifted track to engaging militarily with nations which are of concern to the US, hoping this would garner him the award, as some of these nations are dictatorships with poor human rights record, while a majority export drugs to the West.

Trump’s threats on Greenland will break the one organization that has bound Europe and the US for decades, NATO. It was NATO which stood with the US in Afghanistan. On the contrary, Trump claims that NATO is nothing without the US. He mentioned, “Russia and China have zero fear of NATO without the US.” Trump and his advisors continue threatening military action on Greenland. It is also possible that his threat of controlling Greenland is to rattle Europe which has been standing in the way of him resolving the Ukraine war and assuring himself of the Nobel award. Trump’s pushing Ukraine to accept his proposals are thwarted by Europe which backs President Zelenskyy’s views. European leaders backed Trump’s actions in Venezuela while criticizing his claims on Greenland, as it is closer home.

Europe is also considering opening direct lines of communication with Russia to end the conflict by nominating a special envoy, a channel which would be more appealing to Moscow as it is Europe that is far more affected than the US. This is bound to rattle Trump. Nations in the Americas now being threatened by Trump would have learned lessons from Venezuela and begin taking precautions. While Columbia has backed down and its President Gustavo Petro has spoken to Trump, others continue to defy. A failure as happened during Operation Eagle Claw, which was launched by Jimmy Carter to rescue US diplomats held hostage in Iran, would force Trump onto the defensive. In pursuit of Trump’s military interventions, the UN is being discarded.

The UN Secretary General termed the attack on Venezuela as a ‘dangerous precedent.’ Marc Rubio stated defiantly “I don’t care what the UN says.” The US permanent representative to the UN stated in his briefing to the UNSC, “We are not occupying a country.” This contrasts with what Trump said, “we will run Venezuela.” The intent is evident, Trump will do what he desires, opening doors for other nations to follow suit. Trump’s insistence on adhering to the Monroe doctrine which implies dominating the Americas and ensuring governments in this region do Washington’s bidding may not be easily implementable. The US’s multiple attempts to have Cuban leader Fidel Castro assassinated failed, and he ultimately died of natural causes, aged 90, in 2016. Cuba continues to defy the US.

Mexico has refused to fall into the US trap, though Trump threatens to deploy US troops on Mexican soil to target drug cartels. Iran is the only nation not in the Americas where Trump is threatening to intervene. This is for two reasons. Firstly, the failed Operation Eagle Claw remains a blot on the US military and secondly its ability to threaten Israel. Iran is currently in the throes of an internal uprising, which the US and Israel have been inciting, directly and indirectly. The U S had bombed Iran alongside Israel recently. It could repeat this. However, targeting its leadership with boots on the ground is another story. Its only hope is that the internal uprising forces the leadership to yield power, something possible but still some distance away.

The Iranian leadership has face d similar uprisings earlier and pulled through, though for different reasons. Will it survive the present is to be seen. Trump’s intent appears to be to align with other major powers and divide the world into spheres of influence and control. Under this, Trump would control the Americas and Europe, China would dominate South and South East Asia, while Russia would manage Central Asia. It is possibly with this mind that Trump recently stated, “He (Xi) considers it (Taiwan) to be a part of China, and that’s up to him what he’s going to be doing,” adding he would be unhappy if it did (attack and occupy Taiwan). In addition, Trump has approved the bill, ‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025,’ which gives him sweeping powers of enhancing tariffs up to 500 per cent on nations which procure Russian oil.

The nations he intends to target are China, India and Brazil, all members of BRICS, an organization which he visualizes as a threat since they seek to bypass the US dollar in global trade. India is in the crosshairs because it refuses to bend to Trump’s demands and is the only nation whose economy has been growing despite his sanctions. Further the Indian leadership is unwilling to assuage Trump’s ego. How far Trump will be able to go with his military intervention threats is to be seen. India must continue to hold firm, setting an example for others.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)